Thursday, October 8, 2009

Management vs. Leadership!

“The time is always right to do what is right.” Martin Luther King. 

Dr. King’s quotation has been quoted by many as a guide for business ethics. Many others quote Mark Twain who said: “It is curious that physical courage should be so common in the world and moral courage so rare.”  Others quote Peter Drucker who said: “Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things.” 

All of these quotations have never been more timely than they are right now in light of this week’s disclosure that the federal government is considering a $35 billion stimulus to help low-income and first time home buyers get a mortgage.

Management would say that this is doing things right...lending money to low income and first time buyers.  Putting money back into the housing market will stimulate the economy.  It will generate cash flow for our financial firm and create a tremendous profit.  Companies are in business to make money.  The role of management is to make sure the company is moving forward in networth.

But Leadership would ask the question:  “Is this the right way to make money?”  The reason banks are being very stingy of lending money again is because they have been spooked by the very recent past of lending money to people who were not qualified to repay the loan.  Banks know that a credit score of under 630 increases the probability of defaulting on the loan and that puts the bank at risk.  Too much risk amassed and the firm goes under or needs another bailout.

The integrity of leadership would say that to lend money to high risk individuals will hurt them and hurt us in the long run.  We may not be as profitable right now, but the pay off is down the road.  Had financial firms acted with integrity the first time around, we would likely not be in the recession we are in currently in America.

The take away from this is that, management without the integrity of leadership leads to inflated profit that puts the firm at risk.

The appeal is not for more management, but for greater leadership.  America will turn its economic challenges around, and it really starts with your leadership in your sphere of influence.  Good management always follows good leadership.

---BRENT ROLSTEN

Thursday, May 21, 2009

MBA's and jobs.....Wall Street not the only option.

Kunal Agarwal, 28, started the MBA program at UCLA's Anderson School for Management back in 2007 thinking he would end up working at a financial giant. But after watching the financial crisis claim major banks and investment houses while putting a damper on head counts and compensation, Agarwal is coming up with another plan.

Graduation
Some newly minted MBAs have had to rethink their Wall Street dreams and look into other areas.

"Big established brands don’t really mean as much as they used to," he says.

The crisis that wiped out both Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns and perhaps forever changed the world of high finance in America, is now forcing the next batch of MBA graduates to change their idea of where they’ll end up working. While some lucky students are still picking up traditional jobs, others have had to rethink their Wall Street dreams and look elsewhere.

Agarwal was offered one of the rare positions at an investment bank, but is holding off on accepting it while he explores entrepreneurial opportunities at new technology companies and new social networking sites that he hopes could be the next Facebook or Twitter. "It may not pay up front, but it may down the line," he says.

Of course, some newly minted MBAs are jumping to take advantage of the dwindling opportunities at prestigious firm. Javier Escobar, a 28-year-old student at Columbia Business School, was offered a corporate banking position at Citi [C  3.72    0.03  (+0.81%)   ] after interning there last summer.

Adair Newhall, who's graduating from University of Virginia's Darden School of Business this month, is going on to work at venture capital firm Domain Associates. Newhall, 30, also interned at the company during the summer and was talking to several venture capital firms before he finally got an offer from Domain Associates a couple of weeks ago, securing his dream job.

"I'm probably the minority on this one," he admitted.

Though Newhall and Escobar didn't have to settle, some of his class mates are having to.

"They’re being more flexible in the types of jobs they take, and taking jobs in other cities and not necessarily staying in New York," says Escobar.

Overall, recruiters expect to hire an average of six new MBAs this year, half that of 2008, according to a survey conducted by the Graduate Management Admission Council, a global association of graduate business schools.

"Students need to be resilient and look way beyond their dream job," said Jody Queen-Hubert executive director of career services at Pace University's Lubin School of Business.

That means considering job offers from government agencies as well as health care and energy companies. Alternative energy, in particular, has assumed a higher profile, thanks to President Barack Obama's agenda.

"I think some students might find it’s a scary time to graduate, but they might be at the front end of careers of the future," says Rebecca Joffrey, co-director of the career development office at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, adding they represent the “big problems that we're addressing as a society."

President Obama's suggestion that it may be a good time for the the best and the brightest to work for the government has probably inspired more than a few students, but a government job has other virtues in a world of layoffs and high unemployment.

"It seems more secure from the student perspective and the benefits are good," says Zelon Crawford, director of graduate career management and corporate relations at Temple University's Fox School of Business. Crawford notes the IRS recruited at the school this year for the first time.

Agarwal, the UCLA Anderson student, noticed that the government representatives were  "more aggressive in their recruiting this year," based on their presence on campus and the number of jobs posted on the school’s job site.

Students who fail to find a job by graduation will still look to their schools for help.

"All schools will graduate students with fewer offers than we did last year," said Jack Oakes, director of the Career Development Center at the Darden School of Business. "We'll continue to work with these graduates throughout the summer even as we ready for the new crop of students coming in."

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Government CANNOT run a business!!!!! Any business!

The Obama administration is bent on becoming a major player in -- if not taking over entirely -- America's health-care, automobile and banking industries. Before that happens, it might be a good idea to look at the government's track record in running economic enterprises. It is terrible.

In 1913, for instance, thinking it was being overcharged by the steel companies for armor plate for warships, the federal government decided to build its own plant. It estimated that a plant with a 10,000-ton annual capacity could produce armor plate for only 70% of what the steel companies charged.

When the plant was finally finished, however -- three years after World War I had ended -- it was millions over budget and able to produce armor plate only at twice what the steel companies charged. It produced one batch and then shut down, never to reopen.

Or take Medicare. Other than the source of its premiums, Medicare is no different, economically, than a regular health-insurance company. But unlike, say, UnitedHealthcare, it is a bureaucracy-beclotted nightmare, riven with waste and fraud. Last year the Government Accountability Office estimated that no less than one-third of all Medicare disbursements for durable medical equipment, such as wheelchairs and hospital beds, were improper or fraudulent. Medicare was so lax in its oversight that it was approving orthopedic shoes for amputees.

These examples are not aberrations; they are typical of how governments run enterprises. There are a number of reasons why this is inherently so. Among them are:

1) Governments are run by politicians, not businessmen. Politicians can only make political decisions, not economic ones. They are, after all, first and foremost in the re-election business. Because of the need to be re-elected, politicians are always likely to have a short-term bias. What looks good right now is more important to politicians than long-term consequences even when those consequences can be easily foreseen. The gathering disaster of Social Security has been obvious for years, but politics has prevented needed reforms.

And politicians tend to favor parochial interests over sound economic sense. Consider a thought experiment. There is a national widget crisis and Sen. Wiley Snoot is chairman of the Senate Widget Committee. There are two technologies that are possible solutions to the problem, with Technology A widely thought to be the more promising of the two. But the company that has been developing Technology B is headquartered in Sen. Snoot's state and employs 40,000 workers there. Which technology is Sen. Snoot going to use his vast legislative influence to push?

2) Politicians need headlines. And this means they have a deep need to do something ("Sen. Snoot Moves on Widget Crisis!"), even when doing nothing would be the better option. Markets will always deal efficiently with gluts and shortages, but letting the market work doesn't produce favorable headlines and, indeed, often produces the opposite ("Sen. Snoot Fails to Move on Widget Crisis!").

3) Governments use other people's money. Corporations play with their own money. They are wealth-creating machines in which various people (investors, managers and labor) come together under a defined set of rules in hopes of creating more wealth collectively than they can create separately.

So a labor negotiation in a corporation is a negotiation over how to divide the wealth that is created between stockholders and workers. Each side knows that if they drive too hard a bargain they risk killing the goose that lays golden eggs for both sides. Just ask General Motors and the United Auto Workers.

But when, say, a school board sits down to negotiate with a teachers union or decide how many administrators are needed, the goose is the taxpayer. That's why public-service employees now often have much more generous benefits than their private-sector counterparts. And that's why the New York City public school system had an administrator-to-student ratio 10 times as high as the city's Catholic school system, at least until Mayor Michael Bloomberg (a more than competent businessman before he entered politics) took charge of the system.

4) Government does not tolerate competition. The Obama administration is talking about creating a "public option" that would compete in the health-insurance marketplace with profit-seeking companies. But has a government entity ever competed successfully on a level playing field with private companies? I don't know of one.

5) Government enterprises are almost always monopolies and thus do not face competition at all. But competition is exactly what makes capitalism so successful an economic system. The lack of it has always doomed socialist economies.

When the federal government nationalized the phone system in 1917, justifying it as a wartime measure that would lower costs, it turned it over to the Post Office to run. (The process was called "postalization," a word that should send shivers down the back of any believer in free markets.) But despite the promise of lower prices, practically the first thing the Post Office did when it took over was . . . raise prices.

Cost cutting is alien to the culture of all bureaucracies. Indeed, when cost cutting is inescapable, bureaucracies often make cuts that will produce maximum public inconvenience, generating political pressure to reverse the cuts.

6) Successful corporations are run by benevolent despots. The CEO of a corporation has the power to manage effectively. He decides company policy, organizes the corporate structure, and allocates resources pretty much as he thinks best. The board of directors ordinarily does nothing more than ratify his moves (or, of course, fire him). This allows a company to act quickly when needed.

But American government was designed by the Founding Fathers to be inefficient, and inefficient it most certainly is. The president is the government's CEO, but except for trivial matters he can't do anything without the permission of two separate, very large committees (the House and Senate) whose members have their own political agendas. Government always has many cooks, which is why the government's broth is so often spoiled.

7) Government is regulated by government. When "postalization" of the nation's phone system appeared imminent in 1917, Theodore Vail, the president of AT&T, admitted that his company was, effectively, a monopoly. But he noted that "all monopolies should be regulated. Government ownership would be an unregulated monopoly."

It is government's job to make and enforce the rules that allow a civilized society to flourish. But it has a dismal record of regulating itself. Imagine, for instance, if a corporation, seeking to make its bottom line look better, transferred employee contributions from the company pension fund to its own accounts, replaced the money with general obligation corporate bonds, and called the money it expropriated income. We all know what would happen: The company accountants would refuse to certify the books and management would likely -- and rightly -- end up in jail.

But that is exactly what the federal government (which, unlike corporations, decides how to keep its own books) does with Social Security. In the late 1990s, the government was running what it -- and a largely unquestioning Washington press corps -- called budget "surpluses." But the national debt still increased in every single one of those years because the government was borrowing money to create the "surpluses."

Capitalism isn't perfect. Indeed, to paraphrase Winston Churchill's famous description of democracy, it's the worst economic system except for all the others. But the inescapable fact is that only the profit motive and competition keep enterprises lean, efficient, innovative and customer-oriented.

Monday, April 13, 2009

The Genius of Consistency....

The past several months have taken its toll on some of the high flying Wall Street Executives.  The list of those who have been pushed out the door since the credit crisis began is long and varied.  While each executive’s situation is unique, there seems to be a few common denominators in their demise.

For those highly respected executives who are still hanging tough during this downturn, there are also a few common denominators that become evident during adversity.

1.  Examination of the leader and the organization.
It has been said that an unexamined life is not worth living.  We might also infer that an unexamined organization will result in loss of clarity, focus and direction.  Both the leader and organization must have the capacity for critical examination.  Greater productivity always comes from asking the question:  “How can I / We do this better?”

2.  Allow for transparency.
The failure on Wall Street in part, is the failure to admit one’s mistakes.  Human pride keeps us from being transparent.  If the leader is willing to admit when mistakes are made, then everybody else around him is more inclined to admit their wrong steps.  The result will be that the leadership and the organization will make a better decision next time.

3.  Allow for group problem solving.
The empowerment for your organization comes through team meetings where you not only notice the victories, but also focus on what needs to be fixed.  As a leader, you don’t have to go it alone, but rather full disclosure toward team problem solving eliminates team problem hiding.  Tap into everyone’s expertise and knock out the problems must faster.

4.  Do the right thing.
This is a phrase that ought to be the mantra through out your entire organization.  It is the phrase of integrity that applies to number of things from improving customer service to taking write downs to strengthen the balance sheet.  If it’s not the right thing to do, don’t do it.  And that should go through every level in your company.

Your focus on these 4 things doesn’t seem particularly revolutionary.  However, the genius of it is in the CONSISTENCY of execution.  Examination, transparency, group problem solving and doing the right thing, will help you and your firm sustain and strengthen your productivity.

---BRENT ROLSTEN

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The High Road is Worth Traveling.

Look, you know as well as I do, that if given the opportunity, the world will drag you into its underworld of negativity resulting in loss of productivity.  The low road is a rough ride.

Last time we looked at the first tip for Traveling the High Road:

1)  It’s Not What Happens To You, but in You That Really Matters.
Choosing the high road is refusing to be dragged into bickering and petty jealousies, and instead choosing the higher character quality.

Secondly,

2) High Roaders See Their Own Need for Grace, Therefore They Extend It to 
    Others.
Let's face it; we all screw up from time to time. Each of us has quirks that we know can be annoying, and bad moments when we're not so pleasant to be around.  People who take the high road recognize their humanness, know that they need to be extended grace, and accordingly are more likely to extend it to others.

3) High Roaders Are Not Victims; They Choose to Serve Others.
People who take the high road don't do so because it's the only available option. They don't do it by accident either: the high road goes uphill and takes more effort to travel. Instead, high roaders choose their path as a conscious act of service to others. By taking the high road, they drain animosity and bitterness out of relationships, serving to keep them open and productive.

Interestingly, in serving others, higher roaders benefit themselves, too. The wisest man who ever lived wrote, "It is a man's glory to overlook an offense." When we maturely respond to a slight by showing forgiveness, we display admirable character that elevates us in the eyes of others.

4) High Roaders Set High Standards for Themselves Than Others Would.
Abandoned as an infant, author James Michener never knew his biological parents. Fortunately, he was taken in and raised by a widow, and he adopted her surname. However, each time James published a book, he received nasty notes from one member of the Michener clan. The relative chastised James for taking on the Michener name, which this person felt the novelist had no right to use.

Despite being berated, Michener did agree with one statement his relative had made, "Who do you think you are, trying to be better than you are?" As James Michener professed, "I've spent my life trying to be better than I was, and I am a brother to all who share the same aspiration."

When we conduct ourselves according to the highest standard, we are less likely to become defensive and take the low road when others attack us. Once you've done all that you can, then you can let the noise of detractors roll off your back like rain.

Summary

In leadership, as in life, others will behave unkindly toward you. When ill-treated, don't retreat into a defensive mode or strike back in anger. Instead, take the high road and discover how rising above offenses frees you from petty arguments and adds to your reputation and character.  Press on!

---BRENT ROLSTEN

Thursday, March 26, 2009

"Have we seen the last of the bear raids?"

So is that it? Is the downturn over? After bouncing off of 6500, or more than half its peak value, and with Citigroup briefly breaking $1, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied back more than 1200 points. So, is it safe to go back in the water? Best to figure out what went wrong first -- what I like to call a bear-raid extraordinaire.

[Commentary]Corbis

The Dow clearly got a boost from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's new and improved plan, announced on Monday, to rid our banks of those nasty toxic assets. The idea is to form a "Public-Private Investment Fund" to buy up $500 billion to $1 trillion worth of bad assets -- mostly mortgage backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).

While it's true that private interests can conceptually help establish the right market price for these assets, the reality is Mr. Geithner's public-private scheme won't work. Why? Because the pricing paradox remains -- private parties won't overpay, yet banks believe these assets are extremely undervalued by the market. As Edward Yingling, president of the American Bankers Association, said recently on CNBC, "You have to go into the securities, examine the securities, examine the cash flow. I've seen it done, and the market is so far below what they're really worth."

The Treasury can't just keep throwing money at the problem, but needs instead to figure out what's really been going on -- the aforementioned bear-raid extraordinaire that's crushed Citigroup and Bank of America and General Electric, among others. Only then can Mr. Geithner craft a real plan to fight back.

In a typical bear raid, traders short a target stock -- i.e., borrow shares and then sell them, hoping to cover or replace them at a cheaper price. Once short, traders then spread bad news, amplify it, even make it up if they have to, to get a stock to drop so they can cover their short.

This bear raid was different. Wall Street is short-term financed, mostly through overnight and repurchasing agreements, which was fine when banks were just doing IPOs and trading stocks. But as they began to own things for their own account (MBSs, CDOs) there emerged a huge mismatch between the duration of their holdings (10- and 30-year mortgages and the derivatives based on them) and their overnight funding. When this happens a bear can ride in, undercut a bank's short-term funding, and force it to sell a long-term holding.

Since these derivatives were so weird, if you wanted to count them as part of your reserves, regulators demanded that you buy insurance against the derivatives defaulting. And everyone did. The "default insurance" was in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs), often from AIG's now infamous Financial Products unit. Never mind that AIG never bothered reserving for potential payouts or ever had to put up collateral because of its own AAA rating. The whole exercise was stupid, akin to buying insurance from the captain of the Titanic, who put the premiums in the ship's safe and collected a tidy bonus for his efforts.

Because these derivatives were part of the banks' reserve calculations, if you could knock down their value, mark-to-market accounting would force the banks to take more write-offs and scramble for capital to replace it. Remember that Citigroup went so far as to set up off-balance-sheet vehicles to own this stuff. So Wall Street got stuck holding the hot potato making them vulnerable to a bear raid.

You can't just manipulate a $62 trillion market for derivatives. So what did the bears do? They looked and found an asymmetry to exploit in those same credit default swaps. If you bid up the price of swaps, because markets are all linked, the higher likelihood (or at least the perception based on swap prices) of derivative defaults would cause the value of these CDO derivatives to drop, thus triggering banks and financial companies to write off losses and their stocks to plummet.

General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt famously complained that "by spending 25 million bucks in a handful of transactions in an unregulated market" traders in credit default swaps could tank major companies. "I just don't think we should treat credit default swaps as like the Delphic Oracle of any kind," he continued. "It's the most easily manipulated and broadly manipulated market that there is."

Complain all you want, it worked. In early March, Citigroup hit $1 and Bank of America dropped to $3 and GE bottomed at $6.66 from $36 not much more than a year ago. Same for Lloyds Banking Group in the U.K. dropping from 400 to 40. Citi CEO Vikram Pandit recently announced that the bank was profitable in January and February. (How couldn't they be? With short-term rates close to zero, any loan could be profitable). Never mind they still had squished CDOs, it was enough to get some of the pressure off, for now.

Oddly, with the new Treasury plan, these same bear raiders are still incentivized to manipulate the price of swaps to depress toxic derivative prices, especially so with the government's help to get hedge funds to turn around and buy them. Perversely, they may get rewarded for their own shenanigans.

This week's Treasury announcement of private buyers isn't going to magically change the depressed prices of these toxic derivatives. The Treasury needs to fight fire with fire. If I were Mr. Geithner, I'd pull off a bull run -- i.e., pile into the CDS market and sell as many swaps as I could, the opposite of a bear raid. If the bears are buying, I'd be selling, using the same asymmetry against them. Sensing the deep pockets of Uncle Sam, the bears will back off. Worst case, the Fed is on the hook for defaults, which they are anyway!

With the pressure of default assumptions easing, prices of CDOs should rise, which not only gives breathing room to banks, but may actually get these derivatives to a price where banks would be willing to sell them, replacing toxic assets in their reserves with cash or short term Treasurys, which ought to stimulate lending.

So are hedge funds villains? Not especially. The bear raid probably saved us five to 10 years' of bank earning disappointments as they worked off these bad loans. Those that mismatched duration set themselves up to be clawed. Under cover of a Treasury bull run, banks should raise whatever capital they can and dump as many bad loans before the bear raiders come back. Let the bears find others to feast on, like autos, cellular, cable and California.

Mr. Kessler, a former hedge-fund manager, is the author of "How We Got Here" (Collins, 2005).

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

The High Road Principle.

"It's nothing personal; it's just business," is a commonly heard phrase in the workplace. However, I tend to disagree with anyone who tries to impersonalize business. At its heart, commerce is a human enterprise, founded upon relationships between people.

Most of us spend a majority of our waking hours in our business or at work, and our vocations endow our lives with meaning or purpose. When we devote ourselves to profession, we're giving a piece of who we are to our work. In that sense, business is deeply personal.

In the workplace, as in the rest of life, relationships get messy. Sooner or later, we will be mistreated. A boss will unjustly fault our performance, a partner will fail to honor an agreement, or a co-worker will cut us down in a meeting. Since business is personal, those instances hurt us, and unless dealt with correctly, they can derail us. As a leader, we have to commit to taking the high road when others, intentionally or unintentionally, wrong us.

 Let’s look at the first of Four Tips For Traveling the High Road:

1) It's Not What Happens to You, but in You That Really Matters.
During the Civil War, Confederate General W.H.C. Whiting envied rival general Robert E. Lee. Consequently, Whiting spread vicious rumors about Lee in an attempt to smear his character. Lee had the opportunity to get even, though. Jefferson Davis, President of the Confederacy, was considering Whiting for a promotion, and he consulted Lee's opinion of the general. Without hesitation, Lee endorsed and commended Whiting. The officers who witnessed the exchange were astonished. Afterward, one of them asked Lee if he had forgotten all of the slander Whiting had spread about him.

"I understand that the President wanted to know my opinion of Whiting, responded Lee, not his opinion of me." Lee did what high road travelers do. He refused to be dragged into a game of bickering and petty jealousies by treating another person with respect, even when that respect seemed unwarranted.

---BRENT ROLSTEN